My Confidence Building Back

It's been a wild month for me.  After starting out average, I decided to visit an old friend who got a new place for playing Poker.  I had a bad run of cards and when I started getting cards, people were cracking me with junk 2-pair hands.   Before I new it I had lost my entire month's winnings and then some.  I went on a Friday night heater hitting set after sets, getting my stack up to almost $1K, then proceeded to donkie it off in more suck outs and bad calls.  While I ended the night a winner, I still lost more then $600 from the top and felt terrible.  I should have just quit after making $700.  The next night was another losing sessions after a flush draw chaser cracked my AQ hand on a draw.  I had to commit my entire stack since I was ahead and he hit his flush and straight.

But last night I had my return.  The night started out with Hold'em and I was getting cards and callers.  I didn't make much money since most of the players knew when to fold.  I had KKs vs JJs.  Aces vs KQ and Kings again.  Everyone folded on the flop and I made about $50.  Everyone was playing pretty solid and unless a donkie showed up I didn't feel like I was going to make much this night.  

The table decided to switch to Omaha.  Now, the action was heating up.  I went on an Omaha heater run and quickly went from $240 to over $700.  It's hard to remember any pivotal hands, since I played so many hands with Omaha.  But it seem like I couldn't lose for the longest time.  Here are some memorable moments.

• Set over Set:  Stan raises it $10 and 4 callers including my self.  I have pocket sixes in the hole and 2 other big cards.  The flop is 2 6 10.  I just flopped middle set.  I bet the pot and Stan re-raises me the pot.  I am thinking that this guy knows how I play, would he do this without having top set?  I smooth call him.  The turn is a blank and I check.  Stan bets the pot again, basically putting me all in.  I call.  The river is another blank.  Stan shows bottom set of 222s and a flush draw that misses.  I more then doubled up to over $450.
• Full House over Nut Flush:  It's an unraised pot with 5 limpers at $2 each.  I have pocket fives.  The flop is 5 9 7 all clubs.  I just flopped bottom set, but scared of the flush so I check under the gun.  The button bets $10 and Jessica calls and I call.  I figure they must have a flush, but its cheap for me to draw to my boat.  The turn is a blank and I check.  The button bets $25 and Jessica calls and so I call.  Not, sure what is going on I pray for the board to pair.  The river is a nine and just what I needed, but I have bottom boat, Fives full of 99s so I check.  The button checks and Jessica thinks for a while and checks.  Showdown...  Jessica says she has the Ace high nut flush.  I am surprised and say I have the boat.  Lesson here is if you flop the nuts, you better bet it...  I understand her thinking here.  She new that since I was in the pot that I must have a set.  She wanted to minimize her losses and knowing that I probably would not fold a set.   It is a cautious play that I would not advise.  As the saying goes, "scared money never makes money..."
• Set over 2-pair:  A new guy raises to $10 and I see him as a maniac player.  I never played with him before but I seen him make some moves.  I have pocket 88s with and an Ace.  The flop is A 8 5.  I just flopped middle set and top 2 pair.  I pot it and he calls and Jessica calls.  The turn is a 10 and I pot it again.  He re-pots me and puts himself all-in.  Jessica folds and I call.  He says he has top 2 pair but never shows as he sees my set of Eights.  Jessica said she had also had A8 and flopped top 2 pair.  She made a really good fold.  Lesson here is that in Omaha 2-pair is nothing.  Don't bet unless you have the nuts or a set or better.  It's that simple...
• Boat over Boat:  Now I am playing every hand.  I keep getting good cards and double suited.  On this flop it is 477.  I have Ace 7 5 K and I see the maniac player pot it at $30. I call him.  This is a dangerous situation because you have to assume the guy betting has a full house already.  The turn is a 6 and I check.  He bets $60 and I call.  The river is a 5.  I just filled up, but check it to him starring him down.. He decided to check.  He shows pocket 44s.  He flopped a the bottom boat.   I rivered a bigger boat and take down the ~$200 pot.
• Nut Straight over Lower Straight:  All I can say is good fold Jessica..
• The Nut Low:  We played a round of High-Low 8 or lower.  I flopped the wheel with 34 and a board of A25.  The only other player folded to my bet after I said I floped the nuts.  I was having fun and didnt really care since I was up over $700 now...

Current Stats

Best Travel Web Sites

Here are my favourite sites for finding deals when traveling..

Best AirFare deals http://www.kayak.com/ or http://www.mobissimo.com/

Then goto Priceline and bid 20% lower.. 

http://www.yapta.com/ for using frequent flyer miles

Check historical Flight delay info at http://delaycast.com/

Best site for Hotels:  http://hotelscombined.com/

Best Site for Car Rental: http://bnm.com/ then goto PriceLine.com and bid 20% lower...

Best Site for getting around a big city:  http://hopstop.com/

Restaurant search: http://opentable.com/

General Travel site: http://www.frommers.com/

New Place, and The Case Ace...

There is a new Poker place in Austin, actually Round Rock and I gave it a try. It was the 2nd day and I haven't seen good cards in a while. I felt like it was my time to start seeing Aces and Kings again.

Pocket Aces and The Case Ace: My feeling was right. My first big had was pocket Kings, but everyone folded to my pre-flop raise. Then I have pocket Aces in the small blind. There is a $1o straddle and the button raises to $40. I re-raise to $100. The button just calls. The flop is an Ace with all clubs. I check, feeling he is aggressive and will push with a big Ace. He does indeed push all-in for my remaining $100. I call with my set of Aces. He shows me AQ with a Queen of Clubs.. A forth club does not hit and I double up to $400.  It was the case Ace that paid me off..

Pocket Kings again: Later in the night I get Kings again in early position. I raise $16. A really tight girl pushes all in for around $35. The host Dominic pushes all-in for $79. He is a loose player and so I call. He shows me an Ace and he said he had AK. The girl just had suited cards. Everyone misses the board and I take down another big $200 pot.

Current Stats

Tip of the Month

Explaining the Markets

When Obama was elected in 2008. The market sold off hard into the election down, Dow down 4500pts, when it seem he would win. After Obama actually won the election in November the Dow fell another 2000pts, less in a month, then recovering a bit before a final plunge of 3000pts since his election. The market finally bottom in March of 2009 and has been straight up since, defying all conventional wisdom. 

It is because the herd thought Obama would be bad for the market and sold off before his election and then when he actually won the election, the final hold out sold everything, before having to climb back up. Since the market is always anticipatory, it will always do the opposite of what most people think. That is priceless advice after 25 years of trading!